The Succession of Crises Leads to Collapse
News:
The White House announced that if the government shutdown continues for a month or two, there will be no salaries for employees, noting that President Donald Trump may intensify his measures.
Earlier, the White House Office of Management and Budget pledged to overcome the government shutdown crisis with the continued layoffs of government agency employees and the continued payment of salaries to the military and federal law enforcement personnel. (RT Arabic)
Comment:
For those who do not know what the US government shutdown means, it expresses the failure of the US Congress (House of Representatives and Senate) to pass a law to fund the government (the budget) or a temporary funding resolution before the end of the year.
The mechanism is that the House of Representatives is the one that sets the budget, so if it does not approve it, the Senate reviews it and amends it, and if it does not approve it, where it requires more than 60 votes out of 100, then if the percentage is not achieved or the President does not approve it, then here the law returns to Congress, the budget stops, and the shutdown occurs.
The shutdown previously occurred in 2018/2019, and the dispute with Trump at the time was when he wanted to pass funding for the border wall with Mexico, which was worth about $5.7 billion, but Trump retreated after public and media pressure.
As for today's dispute, it is about health care, especially supporting the Affordable Care Act, as Democrats are demanding the inclusion of a clause to extend ACA tax credits so that the price of insurance does not rise for people, and also fear of possible reductions in the health support program.
As for the Republicans, they do not want any change in current spending levels, and that the discussion about health care should be separate from the budget.
Despite the Republicans' relative control in both houses, they have not succeeded in crossing the 60-vote threshold.
As we know, Trump's policy seeks a large reduction in spending, and laying off some federal employees will not allow any addition to the budget, and accordingly the shutdown occurred. The question here is, if this government shutdown continues, what will happen?
* The American economy is harmed, i.e., American income decreases by billions of dollars per week.
* Global markets are affected because the dollar and US bonds are considered global safe havens.
* Delay in disbursing salaries of federal employees and retirees, and laying off some of them.
* The credit rating agency may lower its rating for America as happened in 2011.
All of this will generate great public pressure on the party accused of causing the crisis, and the consequences may worsen, and usually the one who bears the blame is the one with the authority, i.e., today, the Republicans and the president, as happened in 1995 and 2018.
Based on President Trump's politically illogical reality at times, he may resort to entering America into a limited war against Iran, for example (navy, its militias, and some nuclear sites), and of course he has this authority without referring to the approval of Congress, and thus faces internal pressure due to the closure with an external event, and this is a well-known method in American history, so he enhances his image, creates a national state, and freezes the opponent temporarily.
In all cases, the general situation within the United States today is unhealthy in many aspects, with current and previous origins, i.e., related to the principle as a whole, and any breach or attempt at reform gives rise to an internal or external crisis.
America today is going through a stage of the fall of the center, which is a very dangerous stage. Either it remains a cohesive country, but loses control of the world and remains relatively strong, or the crises with a fragile social fabric will pull it into disintegration and turn it into separate countries, some strong and some weak, but in both cases it is on a steep slope drawn by its actions and forcing it, and the time has come for its fall.
We ask God to make this fall at the hands of the sincere workers to resume Islamic life and carry the principle that saves the entire world, which is Islam, represented by its state; the Rightly Guided Caliphate on the method of Prophethood.
Allah Almighty said: ﴿And let not those who disbelieve ever think that [because] We extend their time [of enjoyment] it is better for them. We only extend it for them so that they may increase in sin, and for them is a humiliating punishment﴾.
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir Radio
Nabil Abdul Karim
