2025-11-12
Al-Raya Newspaper: Is the conflict in Libya escalating again?
In the heart of the Sahara, invisible lines extend, linking Darfur in Sudan to southern Libya, not only through the sands and ancient roads, but also through tribes, interests, and networks of influence that recognize no borders.
Since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011, an international conflict over Libya has erupted between America and Britain, and the conflict escalated until the new elected executive authority obtained 132 votes out of 188 in the Libyan House of Representatives on March 10, 2021. Thus, confidence was granted to the government of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh - the candidate from the American envoy Stephanie Williams - after which the government of Fayez al-Sarraj was defeated and power was handed over easily.
After that, a political conflict broke out and some countries tried to use corrupt political money as bribes and to buy votes and loyalties. This was pointed out to the UAE and its attempt to influence the selection of members of the Libyan Dialogue Forum (Al Jazeera Net, 11/16/2020). After that, America's reliance on Haftar decreased and he temporarily withdrew from the political scene, and the entire political scene in Libya shifted in favor of America, with continuous attempts from Britain and European countries due to the presence of a political center and interests for countries such as France and Italy.
During this period of state absence, local tribal militias emerged in southern Libya, controlling smuggling and roads, and having close relations with groups from Darfur, especially from the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Movement, where southern Libya was used as a safe haven to receive funding, training, or trade in gold and weapons. This happened between 2012 and 2015, after which Haftar came and expanded his influence from eastern Libya towards the south, benefiting from Egyptian support, and with the force of arms, Haftar achieved relative control. During that period, there were fighters from Darfur in Libya working as mercenaries, and the al-Bashir government was benefiting from that. After the fall of al-Bashir in 2019, the roots of the relationship between Sudan and Libya changed.
After the Libyan ceasefire agreement sponsored by the United Nations in 2020, calls were launched for the exit of foreign fighters from Libya, including Sudanese mercenaries, but many of them remained in Sabha, Murzuq, and Kufra, until 2022. After the outbreak of the war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in 2023, some factions resorted to southern Libya, and with Hemedti's victory now in Darfur after the massacre he committed in the last stronghold of Darfur in the city of Al-Fasher, there may be indications of the movement of tribes loyal to Hemedti in southern Libya, especially from the Tebu and Mahamid, and this will ignite the conflict in Libya again, especially in Fezzan, amid tensions between Haftar's forces and the Russian presence. We may witness Turkish intervention in response to Hemedti's movements. This may prompt Hemedti, on American orders of course, to enter southern Libya and create a tribal conflict according to the tribal expansion that supports him, which will support the secession of southern Libya from Libya or its division with the conflicting forces, and this will be Hemedti's way out.
Southern Libya is the most fragile region in Libya and is often outside the complete control of any party, and Hemedti has ambitions there. Hemedti may not aim to completely occupy southern Libya, but he may use it as leverage to achieve many goals, including:
* High leverage over Haftar through the presence of tribes that support him, through which he can impose a field balance around issues of gold and fuel trade, and even the Russian situation in Fezzan.
* The south intersects with the borders of Chad, Niger, and Sudan, which is a vital area for the trade of gold and uranium. By controlling this triangle, Hemedti's ability to manage cross-border mineral trade increases, and he may sign international deals with America, and the remaining parties will exit.
* He may make it a bargaining chip in files of immigration, energy, and border security, and thus make himself a party that cannot be ignored.
* Considering Darfur a natural extension of southern Libya in terms of tribe and geography, Hemedti will be granted a defensive depth against any threat from the Sudanese army or any hostile force from eastern Sudan and will strengthen the state of separation from Sudan.
Accordingly, the possibility of Hemedti's intervention in the Libyan arena seems more realistic due to what he will gain from it and within the ongoing transformations in Sudan, where he has consolidated his influence in western Sudan and seeks to expand his field of movement towards southern Libya, where tribal interests intersect and tribal separation occurs, and of course this agrees with America's view of the region to move the current borders to tribal borders, and also the fragility of the situation of the Libyan state allows him to think about such a step, and of course such a thing is not as easy as words, but it has a price that the Sudanese and Libyan people will pay and seas of Muslim blood, and all of this is related to the extent of Libya's ability to fortify its southern borders and the extent of America's acceptance of this plan.
The sad and painful thing is to see the lands of Muslims as arenas of conflict between their people to implement the plans of the West to tear apart what remains of our gathering, plunder our wealth, and prevent even thinking about the idea of unity because it always preoccupies us with ethnic, tribal, and sectarian conflicts...etc. to keep away the specter of just thinking about our return as one country.
The truth is that we will not get out of this vortex unless we nourish walking with Hizb ut-Tahrir to resume the Islamic way of life and establish the second righteous Caliphate on the method of Prophethood, the promise of God Almighty and the good news of His Messenger ﷺ.
By: Professor Nabil Abdul Karim
Source: Al-Raya Newspaper
