Water between Negligence and Conspiracy
The Renaissance Dam, an American Weapon Strangling Egypt and Threatening Its Existence
Egypt's existence has been linked to the Nile River since ancient times, as it is the lifeline and source of survival for its people. Egypt relies on the Nile for nearly 97% of its water needs, with total annual water resources of about 60 billion cubic meters, of which 55.5 billion come from the Nile, while actual needs exceed 114 billion cubic meters. This means there is a gap of about 54 billion cubic meters that is filled through the reuse of agricultural drainage water and groundwater. With this large deficit, any additional shortage, even a few billion, means an existential catastrophe.
This reality makes the issue of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam the most dangerous threat Egypt has faced in its modern history. It is not just a development project as they claim, but a strategic weapon in the hands of America, threatening the lives of more than 110 million Egyptians and making their future hostage to foreign decisions.
Since the project began in 2011, Egypt - the most affected country - could have stopped it in its infancy through political pressure or military action, but it did not! Rather, the regime followed the illusion of diplomatic solutions, until it signed in March 2015 the Declaration of Principles agreement in Khartoum, which recognized for the first time the legitimacy of building the dam, and gave Ethiopia the necessary legal and international cover.
This agreement did not include any explicit commitment to Egypt's historical share, but practically canceled what was stipulated in the 1959 agreement, which guaranteed Egypt and Sudan their shares. Even worse, the agreement obligated Egypt to cooperate with Ethiopia, instead of obligating Ethiopia not to harm downstream countries!
After that, rounds of futile negotiations followed under American, European, and African auspices. With each new round, Ethiopia completed a stage of building or filling the dam. Today, after several filling and partial operation processes, Egypt has only construction data of the type "water is an existential issue," "we will not allow our national security to be compromised"; while the reality is that the dam has become a fait accompli that threatens the lives of Egyptians.
It is a mistake to look at Ethiopia as the decision-maker in this issue. The United States is the real sponsor of the project, and the biggest beneficiary of it. In terms of funding and international support, American and Western companies participated in the studies, funding, and technical support, while political cover was provided through international institutions. America also knows that water for Egypt is more dangerous than oil for other countries. Therefore, it has made the dam a pressure card on the current regime to remain subject to its dictates, and a reserve card to use against any political change or future revolution, in addition to the direct threat to Egypt from the existence or collapse of the dam. Reducing the water flow, even by 10% (5.5 billion cubic meters) means the exit of one million acres from the agricultural area. If the water decreases by 20%, the lives of 20 million people will be directly affected. This alone is enough to paralyze the Egyptian economy and plunge the country into chaos, in addition to the disasters that could befall Sudan and Egypt in the event of the dam's collapse, which will not affect Ethiopia.
Therefore, the dam is not just an Ethiopian project, but an American strategic weapon aimed at the heart of Egypt.
Islam views water as public property of the nation, which may not be monopolized or handed over to an enemy. The Prophet ﷺ said: "Muslims are partners in three things: water, pasture, and fire." Thus, any negligence in the Nile's water is a great betrayal, because it is a negligence in the right of the entire nation. The state's duty is to protect water sources and ensure their arrival, even if it requires the use of force.
Also, Sharia stipulates the rule (what is indispensable for fulfilling an obligation is itself obligatory), and preserving people's lives, and therefore controlling and securing the Nile's sources is a Sharia obligation. It is not permissible under any circumstances to leave Ethiopia or any foreign power in possession of the decision over the lives of Egypt and its people.
What if we had a state and a Caliph?
If Muslims had a real state that ruled them with Islam, the Renaissance Dam would not have been allowed to be built for a single day. Rather, the state would have moved from the first moment in every way to prevent any threat to its waters, and it would have controlled the Nile's sources to secure the nation's right to water, and if a hostile power insisted on building a dam that threatens the lives of Muslims, it would have prevented it by force. Allah Almighty said: ﴿Fight them until there is no fitnah and the religion, all of it, is for Allah﴾. But what is happening today is that the Egyptian regime is linking the country's fate to international law set by the colonizer, and relinquishing the only weapon that could have deterred Ethiopia; force.
International and local reports confirm that Egypt is on the verge of a real disaster
Individual water share: declined to about 550 cubic meters per year (less than the water poverty line of 1000 cubic meters), and is expected to decline to 330 cubic meters by 2050.
Agriculture: More than 8 million acres depend on the Nile's water, and any shortage of water will lead to the barrenness of vast areas, and a decline in the production of wheat, rice, and corn, which increases dependence on imports.
Food: Egypt already imports more than 12 million tons of wheat annually, and with any additional water shortage, it will become more dependent on foreign countries.
Energy: The Ethiopian dam produces more than 6,000 megawatts, while Egypt bears the risk of water deficit without compensation, which increases the economic gap.
Health and Environment: The decline in the Nile's flow increases the salinity of water in the Delta, and threatens the lives of millions with health and agricultural problems.
The Egyptian regime has not only stood helpless in the face of the dam and its threats, but has gone beyond that to absurd policies that affect people's lives and health, as it has turned to exploiting treated sewage water, and sometimes not well-treated, to compensate for the water deficit. Instead of seeking to liberate the Nile's sources or secure Egypt's legitimate shares, it resorted to recycling sewage water and pumping it into agricultural use and sometimes into uses that are related to people's daily lives!
This behavior is not just an administrative failure or technical deficiency, but a systematic political crime, as it makes the people live in the midst of diseases and epidemics, and burdens them with the price of a crisis that the regime itself created when it legitimized the dam and signed the Declaration of Principles agreement, and then accepted to be held hostage to futile negotiations. Even worse, the official media presents this trend as a "smart solution" or a "national innovation," while in reality it is a collective punishment for the people, and a continuation of burdening them with the cost of the regime's crime and negligence.
Medical reports and environmental studies have shown that relying on sewage water in agriculture leads to the transmission of serious diseases such as kidney failure, liver diseases (viral hepatitis), and cancers resulting from chemical pollution. Also, the pollution of soil and groundwater with this use leaves long-term effects that are difficult to treat. It is as if the regime is saying to the people: "We will not fight to restore your right to water, but we will give you what threatens your lives"!
This behavior is completely consistent with the role assigned to the regime in Egypt, which is: taming the people and preoccupying them with internal crises, and turning every natural right into a favor that the ruler bestows upon the people. The water, which is the people's life and their Sharia right, has become a material for blackmail: "Thank God that we find you an alternative," while the alternative is slow poison.
In contrast, Islam clarifies that water is from the public resources that Sharia has made a shared property among Muslims, which may not be tampered with, monopolized, or left under the mercy of an enemy. So how can the Nile's water be left hostage in the hands of Ethiopia with American management, while the people are watered with polluted sewage water?!
This policy reveals that the regime is not seeking to solve the crisis, but to manage it in a way that ensures the sustainability of submission and dependence, and turns water from a source of life into a means of humiliation. Thus, the dam and water become a double weapon: an external weapon held by America and its tool Ethiopia, and an internal weapon used by the regime to punish and discipline the people.
Partial solutions - such as water desalination or irrigation development - may alleviate the crisis, but they do not protect Egypt and its people from the existential danger. The only way is to liberate from American dependence, and unite Egypt, Sudan, and the rest of the Muslim countries into one strong state, and then control the Nile's sources, and secure the flow of water as a Sharia right for the nation.
This vision can only be achieved under the Rightly Guided Caliphate on the method of Prophethood, which makes sovereignty for Sharia and authority for the nation, and deals with water as a weapon of life, not as a weapon in the markets of politics.
O people of Egypt the protected: Water is life, and negligence in it is betrayal. The dam that is being marketed to you as a symbol of development in Ethiopia is in fact an American weapon aimed at your necks. The regime that claims to protect your national security is the same one that signed the negligence of it. The duty today is to realize that your salvation is not in the continuation of this regime, nor in waiting for the international system, but in siding with the project of Islam that protects your life, security, and dignity. ﴿Indeed, Allah will not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves﴾. So rise up to carry this great project, and be part of one nation, and one state, that protects its water, land, and existence.
O Allah, restore to us the state of Islam, its authority, and its Sharia so that we may be shaded by its shade again; a rightly guided Caliphate on the method of Prophethood.
﴿O you who have believed, respond to Allah and to the Messenger when he calls you to that which gives you life. And know that Allah comes in between a man and his heart and that to Him you will be gathered.﴾
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir
Saeed Fadl
Member of the Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir in the Wilayah of Egypt
