The War of Metals
On the global stage, amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, a new kind of battle has emerged, unlike anything the world has seen before. It is considered one of the most important modern arenas of confrontation, the backbone of any advanced industry today. It is a battle where traditional weapons are never used; it is the war of vital strategic metals, the materials used in the most important industries such as aviation, defense, electronics, and others. These industries are considered national security, so we must identify some of these metals:
1- Rare earth elements such as: Neodymium, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium...etc., which are used in very powerful magnets and wind turbines, and are important for use in electric car motors, microelectronics, and in the field of military defense such as radars, aircraft, and smart systems.
2- Metals such as: Gallium, Germanium, which are used in optical semiconductors and lasers, and in communications...etc. And antimony, which is used in batteries and most military and civilian vehicles.
3- Copper, nickel, aluminum, and metals used in infrastructure and energy industries.
4- Other metals and elements such as: Titanium used for aircraft and space, and also: Tantalum and Tellurium used in advanced electronics and semiconductors, and we must not forget silicon of very high quality.
These metals and others directly enter the defense and semiconductor sectors, and any shortage in them directly affects sensitive industries that stop technological development, or at least make it slow, and it is considered a very powerful weapon in subduing the opponent in the arenas of competition.
If we look at the reality today, we find that China controls a very large percentage of exploration, which is normal, but it controls the stages that follow exploration, which are conversion and purification to reach manufacturing for a large number of these metals, especially rare earth elements, which are available in a large number of countries, especially Muslim countries, but the problem is in the operations that follow exploration, as they are very complex operations that require hundreds of chemical steps to separate the rare earth elements, where there are 17 elements that are very similar, and the separation processes are complex and result in enormous environmental pollution because they contain radioactive materials and acids, and they also require a very large financial cost, as the cost of one processing plant may reach from 1 to 2 billion dollars, not to mention high-quality human expertise with very high expertise.
These industries hardly come together in one place, from mining to batteries to electronics and what they require, but China is the only country in the world that has been able to close the cycle of work within its country without the need for any external party, which has allowed it to have almost complete control over some elements. For example, China controls 90% of rare earth elements and also 70% of EV lithium and cobalt battery chains, and controls more than 90% of industrial graphite battery anodes.
From here, we find that it has worked slowly and secretly and has been able to possess the weapon of refining and processing these metals, as it is difficult for countries of the world to reach its level in a short time, which has made it a destination for major countries of the world, especially when it announced in 2025 the restriction of exporting rare earth element processing equipment and announced a message to the world saying, We do not control the mines only, but the keys that turn dust into technology.
Therefore, we find today the US President's direction to visit China after his trade war (customs tariffs), as this war was ostensibly to protect American industry, but in fact it is part of a long plan to contain China in the field of strategic metals and technology.
When Trump came to power in 2018, he imposed customs duties on Chinese goods worth more than $360 billion, and his justification for this did not go beyond the American trade deficit with China, not allowing the theft of American intellectual property, and protecting local jobs. But in reality, it was to curb China before it controls global supply chains in technology and rare metals, and the engineers of this war were Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer, and this plan came against the backdrop of the Senkaku Islands crisis in 2010, where China threatened to stop exporting rare metals.
In his new term, he imposed high customs duties to weaken the Chinese economy and raise the cost of exports, tried to prevent American companies from buying rare metals, and began to revive American mining projects in Nevada and Wyoming, and re-persuaded Australia, Canada, and Japan to create a rare metals alliance.
But China's firm position of not submitting was shocking to him, as it adopted several points for its stability, which are:
* Its knowledge that America depends on 70% of rare metals from China.
* The difficulty for America to mine and process these metals because the process requires many stages that are very complex environmentally and technologically.
Therefore, the war moved to a war to secure technological supply chains and critical metals.
Accordingly, the ongoing war is not about who sells more, but about who owns the raw materials and components from which the future is made.
Therefore, we find that America is trying to reach more mines for these materials such as (Darfur, Congo, Niger, Afghanistan, and many Muslim countries), but obtaining the raw material does not end the war because the problem is in mining and processing to reach separate and pure metals, and this is what China has excelled in without others.
President Donald Trump's visit to China is an attempt by him to conclude agreements to obtain the following:
* Securing supply chains and ensuring the flow of strategic metals and materials to obtain equipment that will achieve in the future reducing dependence on China in the long term and ensuring restrictions that obligate China to export rare metals to it.
* Reducing trade tension and reducing customs duties and opening the door to American exports, and this gives the negotiating power greater flexibility.
* So that he shows the world that America deals from the principle of initiative and not the recipient, and this may benefit him in his internal front and electoral races if he is able to run for another term.
* Gaining time by securing supply chains until America can rely on itself as long as it has been able to control the raw material mines and it remains for it to master mining and purification.
But the question is, what can China give it, especially since the Chinese President Xi Jinping enjoys rationality and a distinguished policy? I believe that China's agreement to grant America a market for Chinese products while greatly reducing duties on Chinese exports to America in exchange for some facilities and the continued export of rare metals while maintaining the continuation of Chinese hegemony and any partnership is on Chinese terms.
If we imagine the success of the American-Chinese agreement, what will change economically:
* A breakthrough in global markets in general.
* Stability or partial stability of the yuan and the dollar due to the end of the trade war and customs duties.
* The continuation of global supply chains and emerging countries such as Turkey, Brazil, and India benefit from this.
* A partial breakthrough in technology and chips, and the prices of electronic components and rare metals will decline.
* A slowdown in global inflation with a decrease in customs duties.
All of this will happen on the ground of a fragile global financial economy that is liable to collapse at any moment because the financial collapse is not caused by these reasons.
We must not forget that the agreement, if it happens, does not mean the end of strategic tension because the rest of the files will remain open and America's attempt to impose itself as a unipolar power and its rejection of the multipolar world, and also the real conflict over who owns the superiority in industrial intelligence and chips and processors, and we must not forget the permanent dispute over Taiwan, as it is a matter that concerns China as it considers it a sacred part of its lands, but America does not allow Taiwan to go out of its control.
From here, we find that all that is happening is nothing but a sedative for a short period because the issue is not about money, but about power. From here, the hidden player has a future value if it can take advantage of the circumstances of the international arena in a real way, which is the State of the Rightly Guided Caliphate, that is, the emergence of the principle of Islam in a state that enters into changing the international position in a radical way,
Here, I will only mention the change that concerns the article only:
This state, after it gathers its fragments and the previous legacy returns to its body, becomes a huge global power. It has its own market of about 1.8 billion people, and it relies on a unified currency based on gold and silver, and it has a large army under the umbrella of the Caliph, and it becomes the one who controls energy and minerals, as it owns 70% of the world's reserves of oil and gas, as well as critical minerals such as nickel in Indonesia, lithium in Afghanistan, uranium in Niger, gold in Sudan, and large mines of rare earth minerals in all parts of the sprawling state, and thus it works to complete the manufacturing cycle at a high level and quickly according to the military manufacturing system that it will adopt the establishment of in the early days of its establishment.
It is the one that can impose conditions, pricing, and dominate all rare metals, and China cannot bargain with it because it needs this state in all directions because energy, corridors, and the market are all under the command of this great state.
If I wrote in this field, I would need volumes to talk about what will change, and it is enough that the existence of this state will bring about a global civilizational transformation that redefines everything; the economy, morality, justice, equality, and much more.
O God, hasten it for us to bring people out from the worship of people to the worship of the Lord of people and from the injustice of religions to the justice of Islam so that the light may spread throughout the world.
Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir
Nabil Abdul Karim
