جريدة الراية:  نظرة حول مصداقية استطلاعات الرأي، واستطلاع الجامعة الأردنية المضلل حول الدولة المدنية
January 10, 2017

جريدة الراية: نظرة حول مصداقية استطلاعات الرأي، واستطلاع الجامعة الأردنية المضلل حول الدولة المدنية

Raya sahafa

2017-01-11

جريدة الراية:

نظرة حول مصداقية استطلاعات الرأي، واستطلاع الجامعة الأردنية المضلل حول الدولة المدنية

استطلاع الرأي ببساطة هو وسيلة فنيَّة تَهْدِف إلى معرفة وقياس السلوك والاتجاهات والآراء، من خلال طرْح الأسئلة على عَيِّنة من السكان، وتحفيز المستطْلَع آراؤهم في إخراج ما لديهم من آراء وقضايا مَسكوت عنها. ولا يصح البدء بقول إن كل الاستطلاعات "مضللة" و"تحقق مخططات"، خاصة إذا التزمت المعايير العلمية والحيادية للوصول إلى حقيقة الرأي العام، خصوصاً في الدول التي تهتم في صنع قراراتها على ضوء التوجه الفكري والمشاعري للناس، ولكنها في الدول التي تحكمها أنظمة استبدادية طاغوتية لا تكترث للرأي العام للأمة مثل البلاد الإسلامية، فلا تشهد عادة قياسات صحيحة لاتجاهات الرأي العام، لعدم اكتراث النخب الحاكمة برأي الجماهير. وتكمن المشكلة هنا في أن الفئات المستضعفة عادة ما تؤثر السلامة، ولا تفصح عن رأيها بصراحة، إذا ما كانت أسئلة استطلاعات الرأي العام متعلقة بالشأن السياسي. وهنا تصبح نتائج الاستطلاعات ذات الطبيعة السياسية مضللة، والآراء منافية للحقيقة.

وتجدر الإشارة هنا إلى بعض أنواع الاستطلاعات المضللة والكاذبة في قياس الرأي العام ومنها ما يسمى بالاستطلاعات المرتزقة أو المستأجرة، وهي استطلاعات رأي بتكليف من جهات معينة مدفوعة الأجر أو صاحبة مصلحة سياسية، وتنفذ لتعزيز وجهة نظر معينة لصالح المكلف، وهي الاستطلاعات المصممة للحصول على نتائج معينة ومرغوبة مسبقاً، فالهدف الحقيقي لهذه الاستطلاعات ليس معرفة رأي الناس حول قضية ما وإنما نشر نتائج تؤثر على صانع القرار، وهذه الاستطلاعات تستخدم كاستخدام السكران لعمود الإنارة، أي للإسناد وليس للاستنارة، أي للتضليل، ويمكن كشف هذه الاستطلاعات من خلال الأسئلة التي صيغت بطريقة إيحائية أو متحيزة، وخيارات الاستجابة مصممة للمساعدة على ضمان استجابة معينة تسعى إليها استطلاعات الرأي المزعومة.

وفي ظل واقع العديد من منفذي الاستطلاعات، الذين لا يلتزمون بالمعايير الأخلاقية والعلمية بنشر الاستطلاعات، وحال الكثير من الإعلاميين، الذين لا يتقنون فن قراءة النتائج حسب علم الاستطلاعات، فضلا عن الكتابة والتعليق عليها؛ نحتاج إلى فهم هذه القواعد؛ حتى لا نزهد في استطلاعات الرأي، ونسهم في التعامل السلبي مع نتائجها، وفي الوقت نفسه حتى نضبط تجاوزات بعض الجهات الاستطلاعية التي بعدت عن الحيادية؛ ليس فقط بسبب ارتباطاتها الخارجية بل والداخلية.

بناء على هذه المقدمة الضرورية للرأي العام واستطلاعات الرأي، نأتي على نتائج استطلاع للرأي العام نفذه مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية في الجامعة الأردنية في الشهر الماضي حول حكومة الرئيس هاني الملقي وبعض القضايا الراهنة ومنها الدولة المدنية، وهو البند الأهم المراد الترويج له من الاستطلاع، مع أن الإعلام أبرز النتائج تحت عنوان "نصف الأردنيين يعتقدون أن الأمور تسير بالاتجاه الخاطئ"، لإضفاء بعض المصداقية على الاستطلاع، وهو وصف واقع متردٍ تلمسه الغالبية العظمى من الناس ولا يحتاج لعناء أو دراسة استطلاعية.

وحسب تقرير مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية، نقتبس التالي تحت عنوان: "الدولة المدنية والديمقراطية، ففي هذا القسم، تم التطرق إلى موضوع الدولة المدنية وعناصر الدولة الديمقراطية، من خلال السؤال عن الدين والدولة، والدولة المدنية والأنظمة السياسية".

عند السؤال عن حماية حرية التعبير، أفاد 72% من المستجيبين بأنه يجب حماية حرية التعبير حتى لو كانت متناقضة مع قناعاتهم الشخصية، فيما أفاد 45% من المستجيبين بأنهم مع حماية حرية التعبير حتى لو كانت متناقضة مع دينهم، وأفاد 65% من المستجيبين بأنه يجب حماية حرية التعبير حتى لو كانت متناقضة مع الحكومة الأردنية.

ثم تم تعريف الدولة المدنية للمستجيبين على أنها "الدولة التي تستند على الدستور القائم على المساواة بين المواطنين بغض النظر عن خلفياتهم وتضمن سيادة القانون، بحيث يشكل الدين المرجعية الأخلاقية والقيمية للدولة والمجتمع ولا يتم استغلاله لأغراض سياسية"، وتم سؤالهم في ما إذا كان التعريف السابق يمثل وجهة نظرهم لمفهوم الدولة المدنية، وقد أفاد 66% من مستجيبي العينة الوطنية و90% من مستجيبي عينة قادة الرأي بأن التعريف السابق يمثل وجهة نظرهم لمفهوم الدولة المدنية" انتهى الاقتباس من التقرير.( مركز الدراسات الإستراتيجية)

فقد عرف الاستطلاع الدولة المدنية كما أراد لها النظام فهو مقتبس تماماً من الورقة النقاشية الملكية السادسة، فهو سؤال ليس عن الدولة المدنية بل سؤال عن الدولة التي عرفها النظام في الأردن كما ذكرها الاستطلاع، وروج لها الإعلام بشكل موسع، فكيف يملك المستجيب الحرية في الإجابة وخصوصاً أن الذي يجري الاستطلاع مؤسسة شكلت بإرادة ملكية، كما أن الاستطلاع احتكر تعريفاً واحداً رغم وجود تعريفات أخرى أكثر انتشاراً للدولة المدنية تصفها بأنها رديفة الدولة العلمانية ونفس مضمونها، بالإضافة إلى رأي الشرع الإسلامي السائد والمنتشر بين الناس بأن الدولة المدنية لا تحكم بالشرع لأن المشرع والحكم فيها ليس لله وإنما للبشر، فهل كانت النتائج لتكون كما وردت لو أن هذه الخيارات طرحت للمستجيبين وتم الاختيار بينها؟

كما أن الاستطلاع يتضمن عبارات إيحائية تحفز الاستجابة بالإيجاب لا علاقة لها بصميم السؤال وهو التشريع في الدولة المدنية، وذلك من مثل عبارات: المساواة بين المواطنين، وسيادة القانون، والدين المرجعية الأخلاقية والقيمية للدولة والمجتمع، وليس لأغراض سياسية، فكيف للعامة وحتى النخب رفض هذه الإيحاءات الخبيثة، فمن يرفض سيادة القانون؟

أما السؤال عن حرية التعبير فجاء مقيداً، وهو خبث في السؤال يراد منه تمرير الأفكار والشعارات التي تهاجم الإسلام ومعتقداته وأحكامه وإلا ما المقصود بعبارة "حتى لو كانت متناقضة مع دينهم" فهذا السؤال بالون اختبار وجرأة على دين الله لا يجوز أن يسأل ابتداء في مجتمع يغضب لأية إساءة لدينه ورسوله، وهو بالون اختبار يقصد منه معرفة الحد الذي يمكن فيه التجرؤ على الإسلام دون إثارة غضب الناس.

أما ما غاب عن الاستطلاع فهو ليس فكرة (حرية التعبير) بل ممارسة (حرية التعبير) كما جاءت بالدستور دون قمع أو تقييد وإرهاب من قبل الحكومة وأجهزتها الأمنية.

إن الرأي العام السائد اليوم والناتج عن وعي عام في الأمة نحو مطالبتها بدولة إسلامية تطبق الشريعة، هو الذي دفع النظام إلى طرح فكرة الدولة المدنية بغلاف لا يمت إلى واقعها بشيء وإنما لصرف الأنظار عن أنها هي عين الدولة العلمانية المرفوضة، وهذا الرأي هو الذي طرح من أجله استطلاع الرأي المضلل حول الدولة المدنية، في محاولة بائسة لتزييف الرأي العام لها.

لا يمكن الوثوق باستطلاع الرأي هذا، ونراه من الاستطلاعات المضللة المشار إليها أعلاه، ولا يعبر عن نبض الشارع تعبيرا حقيقيا، بل نراه موجهاً توجيها خبيثا يهدف إلى ترسيخ مفهوم الدولة المدنية الشاذ والمرفوض عامة من قبل الأمة الإسلامية بمجملها، وندعو إلى طرح استطلاعات رأي تبين حقيقة الأفكار والمشاعر التي تسود بين الناس.

بقلم: د. أحمد حسونة

 نائب رئيس المكتب الإعلامي لحزب التحرير في ولاية الأردن

المصدر: جريدة الراية

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Ar-Raya Newspaper: Ar-Raya Miscellany – Issue 573

Al Raya sahafa

2025-11-12

Ar-Raya Newspaper:Ar-Raya Miscellany – Issue 573

O people of Sudan: How long will the conflict in Sudan and elsewhere remain fuel for international ambitions and their struggle with their malicious plans, interventions, and supplying the conflicting parties with weapons to completely control it?! Your women and children have been suffering for more than two years from this bloody conflict that only serves the interests of the West and its allies in controlling the fate of Sudan, which has always been coveted for its location and wealth, so it is in their interest to tear it apart and fragment it. The Rapid Support Forces' seizure of Al-Fashir is just another episode in these plans, as America wants to carve out the Darfur region and concentrate its influence in Sudan and eliminate British influence in it.

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The Goal of Ortagus' Visit

to Lebanon!

In light of the American offensive against Lebanon and the region with the project of normalization and surrender, and the US administration's endeavor under Trump and his team to bring more rulers of Muslim countries into the Abraham Accords, the visit of the American envoy Morgan Ortagus to Lebanon and the usurping Jewish entity comes, loaded with political, security, and economic pressures, threats, and conditions on Lebanon, noting that this visit coincided with the visit of the Secretary-General of the Arab League and the Director of Egyptian Intelligence, apparently to serve the same direction.

In response to these visits, a media statement from the Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Wilayah Lebanon affirmed the following:

First: The interventions of America and its followers in Muslim countries are to serve the interests of America and the Jewish entity, not to serve our interests, especially since America is the first supporter of the Jewish entity in politics, economy, finance, weapons, and media, openly and publicly.

Second: The envoy's visit is not a neutral visit, as some may imagine! Rather, it comes in the context of a clear American policy in the region that supports the Jewish entity and contributes to enabling it militarily and politically, and what the American envoy offers is only an imposition of hegemony, a consecration of subservience, and a diminution of sovereignty, which is a form of surrender and submission to the Jews, and this is what God refuses for the people of Islam.

Third: Accepting these dictates and signing any agreements that consecrate foreign tutelage is a betrayal of God, His Messenger, the Ummah, and everyone who fought or sacrificed to remove this usurping entity from Lebanon and Palestine.

Fourth: Dealing with the Jewish entity is a crime in the legal sense for the vast majority of the people of Lebanon, Muslims and non-Muslims, even in the positive law to which the Lebanese authority resorts, or human law in general, especially after the criminal entity committed genocide in Gaza, which it has not and will not hesitate to do in Lebanon and other Muslim countries.

Fifth: The American campaign and offensive on the region will not pass, and America will not succeed in its endeavor to shape the region as it desires, and if it has its project for the region, which is based on colonialism, plundering peoples, misleading Muslims, and even taking them out of their religion by calling for the (Abrahamic religion), then Muslims, in return, have their project promised by God Almighty; the project of the Second Khilafah according to the method of Prophethood, which has become very close, God willing, and this project is the one that will redraw the region, and even the entire world, anew, in fulfillment of the saying of the Messenger ﷺ: "Indeed, God showed me the earth, and I saw its east and its west, and my nation will reach what was shown to me of it." Narrated by Muslim, and the Jewish entity will be eliminated as the Messenger of God ﷺ foretold in his hadith: "The Hour will not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and the Muslims kill them..." Agreed upon.

In conclusion, Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Lebanon continues to adopt the task of repelling America's campaign and offensive of normalization and surrender on Lebanon and the region, and nothing will deter it from doing so, and we warn the Lebanese authority against following the path of normalization and surrender! And we call on it to seek refuge in its people to confront that, and not to play around with the matter under the pretext of borders or reconstruction and the influence of the international system, ﴿And Allah is predominant over His affair, but most people do not know.﴾.

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A Delegation from Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan

Meets with a Number of Dignitaries from the City of Al-Ubayyid

A delegation from Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan, on Monday, November 3, 2025, visited a number of dignitaries from the city of Al-Ubayyid, the capital of North Kordofan. The delegation was led by Professor Al-Nazeer Muhammad Hussein Abu Minhaj, a member of the Hizb ut-Tahrir Council in Wilayah Sudan, accompanied by Engineer Banqa Hamid and Professor Muhammad Saeed Boukeh, members of Hizb ut-Tahrir.

The delegation met with:

Professor Khalid Hussein - Head of the Democratic Unionist Party, Jalaa Al-Azhari wing.

Dr. Abdullah Youssef Abu Seil - Lawyer and Professor of Law at universities.

Sheikh Abdul Rahim Jouda - From the Ansar al-Sunna group.

Mr. Ahmed Muhammad - Suna News Agency correspondent.

The meetings touched on the topic of the hour; the fall of Al-Fashir and the accompanying crimes of the militia against the people of the city, and the betrayal of the army leaders, who did not fulfill their duty towards the people of Al-Fashir and lift the siege on them, while they were capable of doing so throughout the period of the siege, and the repeated attacks on them, more than 266 attacks.

Then the delegation handed them a copy of the publication of Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan entitled: "The fall of Al-Fashir opens the way for America's plan to carve out the Darfur region and concentrate its influence in Sudan. How long will we be fuel for the international conflict?!" Their reactions were excellent and they called for the continuation of these meetings.

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"Phoenix Express 2025" Exercises

A Chapter in Tunisia's Submission to American Hegemony

Tunisia's preparation to host the new version of the multilateral naval exercise "Phoenix Express 2025" during the month of November comes, which is the exercise that the US Africa Command has become organizing annually after the regime in Tunisia involved the country by signing with America, on 2020/09/30, a military cooperation agreement, which US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper described as a roadmap that lasts for ten years.

In this regard, a press statement by Hizb ut-Tahrir / Wilayah Tunisia reminded that the party clarified when this dangerous agreement was signed that the matter goes beyond traditional agreements, as America is drawing up a huge project that requires 10 full years to complete, and that the roadmap, according to America's claim, is related to border control, port protection, combating extremist ideology, and confronting Russia and China, and this means, with all impudence, a diminution of Tunisia's sovereignty, but rather it is direct tutelage over our country.

The statement affirmed that Hizb ut-Tahrir in Wilayah Tunisia, despite the harassment, arrests, and military trials that our youth are subjected to as a result of their speaking out with the word of truth, reaffirms its call to dissolve this ominous colonial agreement that is intended to drag the country and the entire Islamic Maghreb and adapt them to the malicious American policies, and also repeated its appeal to the people of power and strength in Tunisia and all Muslim countries to pay attention to what the enemies of the Ummah are plotting against them and luring them to, and that the Shariah duty requires them to support their religion and repel the enemy lurking in their countries and their Ummah, and to exalt the word of God by supporting those who work to implement His Shariah and establish His state, the Second Khilafah Rashidah according to the method of Prophethood promised soon, God willing.

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America's Disdain for Its Citizens

Leaves Women and Children Hungry

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a federal program that helps low-income individuals and families and people with disabilities obtain electronic benefits that are used to purchase food and beverages, except for alcohol, and plants to grow their own food. Reports indicate that 42 million Americans rely on SNAP benefits to feed themselves and their families. 54% of adults who receive food assistance are women, most of whom are single mothers, and 39% are children, meaning that nearly one in five children relies on these benefits to ensure they don't go hungry. The federal shutdown also forced some states to find other ways to fund free and reduced-price food programs in their educational areas, so that children who rely on food during the school day would not have to live without food. As a result, the many food banks spread throughout the country post pictures of empty shelves and ask people to donate food and grocery store gift cards to meet the increasing demand for food.

Accordingly, the Women's Section in the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir said in a press statement: We may ask how can the richest country in the world ignore the fact that millions of its most vulnerable citizens will not find enough food? You may wonder where America spends its money, even during the shutdown? Well, instead of ensuring that Americans get enough food, they send billions of dollars to the Jewish entity to kill Palestinians. He is a ruler who sees building a luxurious celebration hall as more important than anything else, while other deputies find that their personal investments are given priority over the well-being of the people they are supposed to represent! As you can see, capitalist America has never been interested in caring for the affairs of its citizens, but was only interested in providing military and financial support to those who deprive children around the world of their right to security, food, shelter, and education, which are basic necessities. Therefore, it leaves children in America also suffering from hunger and insecurity, and lacking adequate education and health care.

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"Every Muslim is inviolable to another Muslim: his blood, his wealth, and his honor."

To every Muslim, to every officer, soldier, and policeman, to everyone who owns a weapon: God Almighty has granted us reason to think with, and obligated us to use it correctly, so one should not act, perform any action, or utter any statement before knowing its Shariah ruling. Knowing the Shariah ruling requires understanding the reality to which the Shariah ruling is to be applied, so the Muslim must enjoy political awareness, so that he perceives matters as they really are, and is not carried away by the plans of the colonizing disbelievers who do not want good for us or for Islam, and who strive with all their might, cunning, and ingenuity to tear us apart, control our countries, and plunder our capabilities and wealth. How can a Muslim accept to be a tool in the hands of those colonizing disbelievers, or an executor of the orders of their agents?! Does he covet a little of the fleeting pleasures of this world, so he loses his Hereafter and is among the people of the Fire, abiding therein forever, cursed and expelled from the mercy of God? Does a Muslim accept to please any of the created, helpless humans while angering God Almighty, in whose hand is this world and the Hereafter?!

Hizb ut-Tahrir calls you to raise the level of political awareness, adhere to the rulings of God Almighty, and work with it to rule according to what God has revealed, so that it removes the hands of the colonizing disbelievers and their agents from you, and thwarts their plans in our countries.

===

You Are the Ones Who Starved the Muslims

O Masoud Pezeshkian!

Under this title, the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir said in a press statement: Iran has announced the bankruptcy of the largest private bank in it, which is (Ayandeh) Bank, and this bank has 270 branches in Iran, after the debts on it increased to five billion dollars. What is surprising in the matter is the criticism of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for administrative failure, saying: "We have oil and gas, but we are hungry"!

The statement affirmed: The person responsible for that administrative failure that the Iranian president is talking about is the president himself, so why is the Iranian people hungry - O Masoud Pezeshkian - and you have oil, gas, and other wealth and minerals? Is it not a result of your foolish policies? Is it not due to your distance from ruling by Islam? The same can be said about the rest of the Muslim countries. The foolish rulers in them squander the Ummah's huge wealth, enable the colonizing disbelievers to access it, and deprive the Ummah of that wealth, then one of them comes to justify the reason for the hunger by saying that it is an administrative failure!

In conclusion, the press statement addressed the Muslims: The foolishness of these rulers who are in charge of your affairs has become clear to every sighted person, and they are not worthy of taking charge of it. It is time for you to restrain them, for this is the ruling of the fool; preventing him from disposing of money and restraining him, and pledge allegiance to one Khaleefah who rules you with the Shariah of God Almighty, and cancels the riba system in your countries so that your Lord Almighty and His Messenger ﷺ will be pleased with you, and restores your plundered wealth, and restores your dignity and honor. Here is Hizb ut-Tahrir, the pioneer whose people do not lie, calling you to work with it to establish the Second Khilafah Rashidah according to the method of Prophethood.

===

To the Sincere Descendants of the Ottoman Heroes

We ask the sincere descendants of the Ottoman heroes: What happened, O great army?! What is this humiliation and weakness?! Is it due to a lack of equipment and supplies?! How can this be, when you are the strongest army in the Middle East? And you rank eighth among the strongest armies in the world, while the Jewish entity ranks eleventh. That is, you are ahead of it in all respects, so how can you accept humiliation?!

The Jihadi army may lose a battle, but it will not lose a war; because the determination that ignited its leaders and soldiers is the same determination that created Badr, Hunayn, and Yarmouk, it is the same determination that opened Andalusia and made Muhammad al-Fatih determined to conquer Constantinople. And it is the same determination that will liberate Al-Aqsa and restore things to their rightful place.

We affirm that the national military doctrine has been lost and not preserved. It is a doctrine of weakness and failure, which diminishes the prestige of the army because it does not open the door to fighting in the way of God. It is a doctrine that made the military a job to receive a salary, so conscription became a heavy burden on the hearts of young people, who avoid it. It is a doctrine that made military ranks for boasting, so the army was emptied of its true meaning.

We in Hizb ut-Tahrir call on our sons in the Turkish army not to continue abandoning Jihad and not to support the Muslims who are crying out for their help; because that is an evil, and what an evil... So do not abandon the pinnacle of this religion until you win in both worlds.

===

Trump's Attack on the Democrats

A Coup Against Democracy and an Exposure of Its Falsehood

(Al Jazeera Net, Wednesday, Jumada Al-Akhira 14, 1447 AH, 2025/11/5AD) US President Donald Trump launched a series of sharp statements, criticizing the performance of the Democrats, the voting system, immigration policies, and the government shutdown, stressing that the time has come for the Republicans to take decisive steps (Al Jazeera Network).

Ar-Raya: Since Donald Trump's rise to the American political scene, the world has witnessed a wide debate about the nature of his speech and his style in dealing with his political opponents. Between those who see him as a reformer who wants to restore America to its "lost greatness," and those who consider him a direct threat to the values of democracy, the most important question remains: Is Trump's continuous attack on the Democratic Party merely a normal political conflict, or is it in its essence a coup against American democracy itself?

Trump's attack on the Democrats comes as an internal explosion in the heart of the American system, as it exposes the real conflict between the elite class that controls the joints of the state, and the American people who feel that their voice is no longer effective in the political decision.

Trump's attack on the Democrats, although it seems like a rebellion against American political norms, is in fact a mirror that reflects the crisis of Western democracy itself. It is not only a coup against democracy, but an exposure of its falsehood, and that it is a dead person waiting for the Khilafah state to announce its death and bury it soon, God willing. Our responsibility is to be certain that the path to renaissance is not by imitating