جريدة الراية: سوريا بين خيارات التقسيم واللامركزية قراءة في تقرير مؤسسة راند الأمريكية
July 05, 2016

جريدة الراية: سوريا بين خيارات التقسيم واللامركزية قراءة في تقرير مؤسسة راند الأمريكية

Raya sahafa

2016-07-06 

جريدة الراية: سوريا بين خيارات التقسيم واللامركزية قراءة في تقرير مؤسسة راند الأمريكية


تكاد تتفق مراكز الدراسات الاستراتيجية عند طرح تصورها لمستقبل سوريا، أن سوريا لن تعود كما كانت من قبل، وبناء على الواقع المفكك وتوزع النفوذ على الأرض، أصبحت فكرة التقسيم تطرح من حين لآخر على الرغم من أن القرارات الأممية، والتصريحات الرسمية الأمريكية ترتكز على بقاء (سوريا موحدة) ومن المفترض أن يعني ذلك رفض فكرة التقسيم، إلا أن العبارة بحد ذاتها تحمل في طياتها بذور التقسيم لأنها توحي بأن سوريا عبارة عن أجزاء، وهذا يبقي الباب مفتوحا حول صيغة العلاقة بين هذه الأجزاء، لذلك كان من اللافت ما نشرته مؤسسة راند الأمريكية والمعروفة بقربها من دوائر القرار في أمريكا في شهر كانون الأول/ديسمبر 2015 بعنوان (خطة سلام من أجل سوريا) وقد جاء فيه (يتمثل اقتراح راند في إنشاء ثلاث مناطق جغرافية متفق عليها في سوريا، تتصل اثنتان منهما وتنفصل الثالثة عنهما...) وهذه الجيوب هي مناطق السيطرة الفعلية للأكراد والثوار والنظام، أما منطقة سيطرة تنظيم الدولة فستبقى تحت سيطرته، ووفق المقترح "ستخضع هذه المنطقة لإدارة دولية حال طرد تنظيم الدولة منها بشكل تدريجي...) (مؤسسة راند-خطة سلام من أجل سوريا، ترجمة مركز إدراك)، ومع التغيرات التي جرت على أرض الواقع في سوريا عادت مؤسسة راند ونشرت في 2016/6/7 تتمة للمقترح الأول بعنوان (خطة سلام من أجل سوريا 2) وقد جاء فيه (... وفي الوقت الذي يواصل فيه المجتمع الدولي جهوده من أجل التوصل إلى تسوية تقود لإنهاء الحرب الأهلية في سوريا، يقدم هذا المقترح خيار "اللامركزية" كجزء من الحل)، وقد بينت أن سبب هذا التحديث هو ما استجد من أحداث في سوريا تتلخص بـ:


1. إعلان الأطراف الرئيسية على الأرض والرعاة الخارجيين قبولهم لاتفاق "وقف الأعمال العدائية"!


2. تمكن النظام بالدعم الروسي من تعزيز سيطرته على الكثير من المناطق.


3. إعلان روسيا بدء عملية انسحاب جزئي لقواتها العسكرية.


4. إعلان قادة الأكراد عن تأسيسهم لـ"اتحاد شمال سوريا".


5. توجيه النظام معركته باتجاه تنظيم الدولة وتحول العديد من فصائل المعارضة السورية إلى قتال تنظيم الدولة بدلاً من قتال النظام.


وهذه العوامل التي استجدت بحسب (راند) استدعت إجراء تحديث لمقترحها الأول، معللة ذلك بأن (توحيد سوريا - تحت قيادة وطنية متفق عليها مع تواجد هيكلة أمنية واحدة - يعد أمراً بعيداً...) والخيار الواعد بحسب راند هو خيار "اللامركزية"، الذي يقوم على أساس التوزيع الأفقي للسلطة، لتحويل الأنظار بعيدا عن التوزيع الرأسي للسلطة، وهذا ينسجم مع إصرار أمريكا على بقاء النظام في بنيته الأساسية، وقد طرحت أربع خيارات لترتيبات الحكم، وهذه الخيارات هي: (خيار لامركزية خفيفة "محدودة") وهو (الخيار الأقل طموحاً) ويعني الاعتماد على الدستور السوري القائم حاليا وتفعيله على الأرض بشكل فعلي؛ لذلك فهو يتطلب فقط (إعادة رسم التقسيمات الإدارية في سوريا وليس القيام بإصلاح دستوري أو تشريعي) (وبالتالي فهو لا يحمل أي تغيير عن الوضع الحالي).


أما (الخيار الثاني: إضفاء الطابع المؤسسي على السيطرة المحلية) ويعتمد على فكرة إضفاء الشرعية الإدارية على المناطق القائمة فعلا بحسب الواقع الآن، وتعتبر (راند) هذا المقترح بأنه لا يتطلب إحداث تغييرات في التقسيمات الإدارية. وهذا الشكل من الحكم الذاتي ينبني على "الإخلاص" للدولة المركزية ويبقي الحد الأدنى من هيمنة الدولة المركزية على أمور مثل: الجمارك ومراقبة الحدود والانضمام للجيش وفرض الضرائب على التجارة. ومعوقات هذا الخيار بالنسبة (لراند) تتمثل في تاريخ النظام المغرق في السيطرة المركزية، والحاجة للقيام بتنازلات قد لا تكون متاحة في ظل تقدم النظام في ميادين القتال الآن، وخطر استخدام من تسميهم بـ (الجماعات المتشددة ومنظمات المجتمع المدني) القوة أو "الرفاه الاجتماعي" كوسيلة للحفاظ على السيطرة المحلية وتعزيز قواعد دعمهم. وملاحظة (راند) هذه تعني أن المطلوب أمريكيا هو خيار لا تتمكن فيه أية قوى وبخاصة القوى المخلصة من الاستفادة من مخرجات الحل مستقبلا، لذلك فإن العواقب التي تواجه هذا الاقتراح تجعله مشوبا بالتضعيف والاستبعاد بالنسبة لراند.


أما الخيار الثالث فهو لامركزية بين الأكراد والنظام، وتصف راند هذا المقترح بقولها (السمة المميزة في هذا الخيار تكمن في التباين في كون الأكراد يتمتعون بحكم ذاتي دون أن يتمتع به أي من المعارضة العربية السنية أو الطائفة الدرزية التي تتركز في السويداء) وتعتبر راند هذا المقترح بأن له حظاً كبيراً بالإشارة لقولها (قد يكون هذا السيناريو صاحب احتمال كبير للحدوث، نظراً لطبيعة الوضع الميداني على الأرض ولكنه سيترافق مع الكثير من الجدل).


أما الخيار الرابع فهو ما تسميه (اللامركزية المتماثلة) و(يتمثل في تطبيق درجة من الحكم الذاتي لكل من الأكراد والمناطق السورية التي تسيطر عليها المعارضة السنية العربية والتي تنقسم على أساسه سوريا إلى ثلاث مناطق أو أكثر، وعلى الرغم من تماهي هذا الخيار مع الطرح الأولي لراند في تقريرها الأول في شهر كانون الأول/ديسمبر إلا أنها ألمحت إلى صعوبة هذا الخيار والسبب أن عناصر النظام والمعارضة لا يزالون يملكون تصميماً على النصر الكامل، ولأن (الفيدرالية المتطرفة يعتبرها السوريون جزءا من المؤامرة الغربية وستساهم في استحضار مخططات الاستعمار لتقسيم سوريا).


وتختم تقريرها بقولها (...إن بقي الأسد أو رحل، وحتى لو تم توحيد الدولة السورية على الورق مجدداً، فإنه من المرجح أن تظل سوريا منقسمة بشكل كبير بين المناطق التي يسيطر عليها النظام وتلك التي تسيطر عليها المعارضة على الأقل لبعض الوقت المستقبلي).


وبقراءة هذا التقييم من هذا المركز الأمريكي المقرب جدا من صناع القرار في أمريكا، يظهر أن فكرة التقسيم الفعلي لسوريا ليست ضمن أجندة أمريكا حاليا لسوريا، وإن كانت الاستراتيجية العامة لأمريكا هي زرع بذور التقسيم في سوريا كما فعلت من قبل في العراق، وكما صنعت فعلا في السودان، إلا أن التقسيم الفعلي لسوريا لا يخدم مصالح أمريكا في سوريا الآن بل سيضعف نفوذها، ويفتح الباب على مصراعيه لنفوذ آخرين ظل باب سوريا موصدا في وجههم خلال أربعين سنة من حكم عملاء أمريكا آل الأسد، والخط العريض لما تسعى له أمريكا يدور حول بقاء النظام هو المسيطر فعلا، وأية صيغة لامركزية أولية قد تضطر لها أمريكا لاستيعاب المعارضة وامتصاص الثورة ستكون لامركزية صورية بلا مضمون حقيقي.


وعلى الرغم من كل ما حققته أمريكا على أرض الواقع في سوريا إلا أنه بقي في سوريا مشروعان: مشروع الأمة وتحتضنه الثورة في أعماقها وجذورها، ويتمثل في عودة الإسلام إلى واقع الحياة، وهذا المشروع كامن في الثورة متجذر فيها على الرغم من محاولات الحرف والعزل والتحييد الداخلي والخارجي لهذا المشروع، والمشروع الثاني مشروع أمريكا وأذنابها وأشياعها، ويتمثل في بقاء سوريا تحت هيمنة الغرب الكافر ورأس حربة في وجه نهضة الأمة الإسلامية. ومشروع الأمة الحقيقي ستكون له الغلبة في آخر الأمر طال الزمن أم قصر زالت الثورة والثوار أم بقوا، لأنه وعد الله سبحانه ولن يخلف الله الميعاد!

بقلم: عبد الله المحمود

المصدر: جريدة الراية

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Ar-Raya Newspaper: Ar-Raya Miscellany – Issue 573

Al Raya sahafa

2025-11-12

Ar-Raya Newspaper:Ar-Raya Miscellany – Issue 573

O people of Sudan: How long will the conflict in Sudan and elsewhere remain fuel for international ambitions and their struggle with their malicious plans, interventions, and supplying the conflicting parties with weapons to completely control it?! Your women and children have been suffering for more than two years from this bloody conflict that only serves the interests of the West and its allies in controlling the fate of Sudan, which has always been coveted for its location and wealth, so it is in their interest to tear it apart and fragment it. The Rapid Support Forces' seizure of Al-Fashir is just another episode in these plans, as America wants to carve out the Darfur region and concentrate its influence in Sudan and eliminate British influence in it.

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The Goal of Ortagus' Visit

to Lebanon!

In light of the American offensive against Lebanon and the region with the project of normalization and surrender, and the US administration's endeavor under Trump and his team to bring more rulers of Muslim countries into the Abraham Accords, the visit of the American envoy Morgan Ortagus to Lebanon and the usurping Jewish entity comes, loaded with political, security, and economic pressures, threats, and conditions on Lebanon, noting that this visit coincided with the visit of the Secretary-General of the Arab League and the Director of Egyptian Intelligence, apparently to serve the same direction.

In response to these visits, a media statement from the Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Wilayah Lebanon affirmed the following:

First: The interventions of America and its followers in Muslim countries are to serve the interests of America and the Jewish entity, not to serve our interests, especially since America is the first supporter of the Jewish entity in politics, economy, finance, weapons, and media, openly and publicly.

Second: The envoy's visit is not a neutral visit, as some may imagine! Rather, it comes in the context of a clear American policy in the region that supports the Jewish entity and contributes to enabling it militarily and politically, and what the American envoy offers is only an imposition of hegemony, a consecration of subservience, and a diminution of sovereignty, which is a form of surrender and submission to the Jews, and this is what God refuses for the people of Islam.

Third: Accepting these dictates and signing any agreements that consecrate foreign tutelage is a betrayal of God, His Messenger, the Ummah, and everyone who fought or sacrificed to remove this usurping entity from Lebanon and Palestine.

Fourth: Dealing with the Jewish entity is a crime in the legal sense for the vast majority of the people of Lebanon, Muslims and non-Muslims, even in the positive law to which the Lebanese authority resorts, or human law in general, especially after the criminal entity committed genocide in Gaza, which it has not and will not hesitate to do in Lebanon and other Muslim countries.

Fifth: The American campaign and offensive on the region will not pass, and America will not succeed in its endeavor to shape the region as it desires, and if it has its project for the region, which is based on colonialism, plundering peoples, misleading Muslims, and even taking them out of their religion by calling for the (Abrahamic religion), then Muslims, in return, have their project promised by God Almighty; the project of the Second Khilafah according to the method of Prophethood, which has become very close, God willing, and this project is the one that will redraw the region, and even the entire world, anew, in fulfillment of the saying of the Messenger ﷺ: "Indeed, God showed me the earth, and I saw its east and its west, and my nation will reach what was shown to me of it." Narrated by Muslim, and the Jewish entity will be eliminated as the Messenger of God ﷺ foretold in his hadith: "The Hour will not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and the Muslims kill them..." Agreed upon.

In conclusion, Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Lebanon continues to adopt the task of repelling America's campaign and offensive of normalization and surrender on Lebanon and the region, and nothing will deter it from doing so, and we warn the Lebanese authority against following the path of normalization and surrender! And we call on it to seek refuge in its people to confront that, and not to play around with the matter under the pretext of borders or reconstruction and the influence of the international system, ﴿And Allah is predominant over His affair, but most people do not know.﴾.

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A Delegation from Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan

Meets with a Number of Dignitaries from the City of Al-Ubayyid

A delegation from Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan, on Monday, November 3, 2025, visited a number of dignitaries from the city of Al-Ubayyid, the capital of North Kordofan. The delegation was led by Professor Al-Nazeer Muhammad Hussein Abu Minhaj, a member of the Hizb ut-Tahrir Council in Wilayah Sudan, accompanied by Engineer Banqa Hamid and Professor Muhammad Saeed Boukeh, members of Hizb ut-Tahrir.

The delegation met with:

Professor Khalid Hussein - Head of the Democratic Unionist Party, Jalaa Al-Azhari wing.

Dr. Abdullah Youssef Abu Seil - Lawyer and Professor of Law at universities.

Sheikh Abdul Rahim Jouda - From the Ansar al-Sunna group.

Mr. Ahmed Muhammad - Suna News Agency correspondent.

The meetings touched on the topic of the hour; the fall of Al-Fashir and the accompanying crimes of the militia against the people of the city, and the betrayal of the army leaders, who did not fulfill their duty towards the people of Al-Fashir and lift the siege on them, while they were capable of doing so throughout the period of the siege, and the repeated attacks on them, more than 266 attacks.

Then the delegation handed them a copy of the publication of Hizb ut-Tahrir/ Wilayah Sudan entitled: "The fall of Al-Fashir opens the way for America's plan to carve out the Darfur region and concentrate its influence in Sudan. How long will we be fuel for the international conflict?!" Their reactions were excellent and they called for the continuation of these meetings.

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"Phoenix Express 2025" Exercises

A Chapter in Tunisia's Submission to American Hegemony

Tunisia's preparation to host the new version of the multilateral naval exercise "Phoenix Express 2025" during the month of November comes, which is the exercise that the US Africa Command has become organizing annually after the regime in Tunisia involved the country by signing with America, on 2020/09/30, a military cooperation agreement, which US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper described as a roadmap that lasts for ten years.

In this regard, a press statement by Hizb ut-Tahrir / Wilayah Tunisia reminded that the party clarified when this dangerous agreement was signed that the matter goes beyond traditional agreements, as America is drawing up a huge project that requires 10 full years to complete, and that the roadmap, according to America's claim, is related to border control, port protection, combating extremist ideology, and confronting Russia and China, and this means, with all impudence, a diminution of Tunisia's sovereignty, but rather it is direct tutelage over our country.

The statement affirmed that Hizb ut-Tahrir in Wilayah Tunisia, despite the harassment, arrests, and military trials that our youth are subjected to as a result of their speaking out with the word of truth, reaffirms its call to dissolve this ominous colonial agreement that is intended to drag the country and the entire Islamic Maghreb and adapt them to the malicious American policies, and also repeated its appeal to the people of power and strength in Tunisia and all Muslim countries to pay attention to what the enemies of the Ummah are plotting against them and luring them to, and that the Shariah duty requires them to support their religion and repel the enemy lurking in their countries and their Ummah, and to exalt the word of God by supporting those who work to implement His Shariah and establish His state, the Second Khilafah Rashidah according to the method of Prophethood promised soon, God willing.

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America's Disdain for Its Citizens

Leaves Women and Children Hungry

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a federal program that helps low-income individuals and families and people with disabilities obtain electronic benefits that are used to purchase food and beverages, except for alcohol, and plants to grow their own food. Reports indicate that 42 million Americans rely on SNAP benefits to feed themselves and their families. 54% of adults who receive food assistance are women, most of whom are single mothers, and 39% are children, meaning that nearly one in five children relies on these benefits to ensure they don't go hungry. The federal shutdown also forced some states to find other ways to fund free and reduced-price food programs in their educational areas, so that children who rely on food during the school day would not have to live without food. As a result, the many food banks spread throughout the country post pictures of empty shelves and ask people to donate food and grocery store gift cards to meet the increasing demand for food.

Accordingly, the Women's Section in the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir said in a press statement: We may ask how can the richest country in the world ignore the fact that millions of its most vulnerable citizens will not find enough food? You may wonder where America spends its money, even during the shutdown? Well, instead of ensuring that Americans get enough food, they send billions of dollars to the Jewish entity to kill Palestinians. He is a ruler who sees building a luxurious celebration hall as more important than anything else, while other deputies find that their personal investments are given priority over the well-being of the people they are supposed to represent! As you can see, capitalist America has never been interested in caring for the affairs of its citizens, but was only interested in providing military and financial support to those who deprive children around the world of their right to security, food, shelter, and education, which are basic necessities. Therefore, it leaves children in America also suffering from hunger and insecurity, and lacking adequate education and health care.

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"Every Muslim is inviolable to another Muslim: his blood, his wealth, and his honor."

To every Muslim, to every officer, soldier, and policeman, to everyone who owns a weapon: God Almighty has granted us reason to think with, and obligated us to use it correctly, so one should not act, perform any action, or utter any statement before knowing its Shariah ruling. Knowing the Shariah ruling requires understanding the reality to which the Shariah ruling is to be applied, so the Muslim must enjoy political awareness, so that he perceives matters as they really are, and is not carried away by the plans of the colonizing disbelievers who do not want good for us or for Islam, and who strive with all their might, cunning, and ingenuity to tear us apart, control our countries, and plunder our capabilities and wealth. How can a Muslim accept to be a tool in the hands of those colonizing disbelievers, or an executor of the orders of their agents?! Does he covet a little of the fleeting pleasures of this world, so he loses his Hereafter and is among the people of the Fire, abiding therein forever, cursed and expelled from the mercy of God? Does a Muslim accept to please any of the created, helpless humans while angering God Almighty, in whose hand is this world and the Hereafter?!

Hizb ut-Tahrir calls you to raise the level of political awareness, adhere to the rulings of God Almighty, and work with it to rule according to what God has revealed, so that it removes the hands of the colonizing disbelievers and their agents from you, and thwarts their plans in our countries.

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You Are the Ones Who Starved the Muslims

O Masoud Pezeshkian!

Under this title, the Central Media Office of Hizb ut-Tahrir said in a press statement: Iran has announced the bankruptcy of the largest private bank in it, which is (Ayandeh) Bank, and this bank has 270 branches in Iran, after the debts on it increased to five billion dollars. What is surprising in the matter is the criticism of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for administrative failure, saying: "We have oil and gas, but we are hungry"!

The statement affirmed: The person responsible for that administrative failure that the Iranian president is talking about is the president himself, so why is the Iranian people hungry - O Masoud Pezeshkian - and you have oil, gas, and other wealth and minerals? Is it not a result of your foolish policies? Is it not due to your distance from ruling by Islam? The same can be said about the rest of the Muslim countries. The foolish rulers in them squander the Ummah's huge wealth, enable the colonizing disbelievers to access it, and deprive the Ummah of that wealth, then one of them comes to justify the reason for the hunger by saying that it is an administrative failure!

In conclusion, the press statement addressed the Muslims: The foolishness of these rulers who are in charge of your affairs has become clear to every sighted person, and they are not worthy of taking charge of it. It is time for you to restrain them, for this is the ruling of the fool; preventing him from disposing of money and restraining him, and pledge allegiance to one Khaleefah who rules you with the Shariah of God Almighty, and cancels the riba system in your countries so that your Lord Almighty and His Messenger ﷺ will be pleased with you, and restores your plundered wealth, and restores your dignity and honor. Here is Hizb ut-Tahrir, the pioneer whose people do not lie, calling you to work with it to establish the Second Khilafah Rashidah according to the method of Prophethood.

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To the Sincere Descendants of the Ottoman Heroes

We ask the sincere descendants of the Ottoman heroes: What happened, O great army?! What is this humiliation and weakness?! Is it due to a lack of equipment and supplies?! How can this be, when you are the strongest army in the Middle East? And you rank eighth among the strongest armies in the world, while the Jewish entity ranks eleventh. That is, you are ahead of it in all respects, so how can you accept humiliation?!

The Jihadi army may lose a battle, but it will not lose a war; because the determination that ignited its leaders and soldiers is the same determination that created Badr, Hunayn, and Yarmouk, it is the same determination that opened Andalusia and made Muhammad al-Fatih determined to conquer Constantinople. And it is the same determination that will liberate Al-Aqsa and restore things to their rightful place.

We affirm that the national military doctrine has been lost and not preserved. It is a doctrine of weakness and failure, which diminishes the prestige of the army because it does not open the door to fighting in the way of God. It is a doctrine that made the military a job to receive a salary, so conscription became a heavy burden on the hearts of young people, who avoid it. It is a doctrine that made military ranks for boasting, so the army was emptied of its true meaning.

We in Hizb ut-Tahrir call on our sons in the Turkish army not to continue abandoning Jihad and not to support the Muslims who are crying out for their help; because that is an evil, and what an evil... So do not abandon the pinnacle of this religion until you win in both worlds.

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Trump's Attack on the Democrats

A Coup Against Democracy and an Exposure of Its Falsehood

(Al Jazeera Net, Wednesday, Jumada Al-Akhira 14, 1447 AH, 2025/11/5AD) US President Donald Trump launched a series of sharp statements, criticizing the performance of the Democrats, the voting system, immigration policies, and the government shutdown, stressing that the time has come for the Republicans to take decisive steps (Al Jazeera Network).

Ar-Raya: Since Donald Trump's rise to the American political scene, the world has witnessed a wide debate about the nature of his speech and his style in dealing with his political opponents. Between those who see him as a reformer who wants to restore America to its "lost greatness," and those who consider him a direct threat to the values of democracy, the most important question remains: Is Trump's continuous attack on the Democratic Party merely a normal political conflict, or is it in its essence a coup against American democracy itself?

Trump's attack on the Democrats comes as an internal explosion in the heart of the American system, as it exposes the real conflict between the elite class that controls the joints of the state, and the American people who feel that their voice is no longer effective in the political decision.

Trump's attack on the Democrats, although it seems like a rebellion against American political norms, is in fact a mirror that reflects the crisis of Western democracy itself. It is not only a coup against democracy, but an exposure of its falsehood, and that it is a dead person waiting for the Khilafah state to announce its death and bury it soon, God willing. Our responsibility is to be certain that the path to renaissance is not by imitating