Answer to a Question: Events in Armenia and Azerbaijan

Answer to a Question

Events in Armenia and Azerbaijan

Question:

The Russian presence in the South Caucasus was shaken (following the signing of a joint declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the United States regarding a peaceful settlement and agreements in the fields of trade and security after a conflict that lasted between the two neighboring countries for more than 35 years... Al Jazeera 2025/8/15). Azerbaijan and Armenia had issued a joint statement on 2025/8/11, following the agreement signed between them in Washington on 2025/8/8, demanding that other parties resolve the Minsk Group, which was formed in 1992 to resolve the problems between the two countries. It stipulated the opening of communications between them for local, bilateral and international transport... How did this happen at a time when relations between them were tense and interspersed with wars, especially in recent times? What are the intended purposes of it? May Allah reward you.

Answer: In order for the answer to be clear, we review the following matters:

1- The Armenian Press page in Arabic published on 2025/8/9 the text of the agreement signed by the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, in the presence of the American President, Donald Trump, at the White House in the American capital, Washington. It stipulated ("Initialing the agreed-upon text of the agreement to establish peace and international relations between the two countries, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and continuing further efforts towards its final signing, emphasizing the preservation and promotion of peace between them, and drawing a path for a future that is not determined by the conflicts of the past, in accordance with the United Nations Charter and the "Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991". It is the declaration relating to the agreement on drawing borders between the two countries after the fall of the Soviet Union and the separation of Azerbaijan and Armenia from it, and mutual recognition between them and respect for sovereignty and non-use of force to resolve disputes. The "two sides reaffirmed the importance of opening communications between the two countries for local, bilateral and international transport on the basis of respect for the sovereignty of states, territorial integrity and jurisdiction in order to promote peace, stability and prosperity... These efforts will include unhindered communication between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Region through the territory of Armenia..."). Thus, the agreement focused on opening communications, transportation and roads between the two countries due to the importance of this issue. As the Nakhichevan region, which belongs to Azerbaijan, is not connected to it, and is cut off by Armenia, and in order to communicate, the Azerbaijanis must pass through Iran. The agreement requires opening a road between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan region. It also requires opening roads between Azerbaijan and Turkey, as Armenia is located between them, so land communication is only possible through Armenia... In this way, America can strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan, extend its influence in Armenia, and weaken or eliminate Russia's influence in it.

2- The agreement also stipulated, as published by the Armenian Press page in Arabic on 2025/8/9, that ("Armenia will work with America and mutually agreed-upon third parties to define a framework for implementing the communications program through what is called the "Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIP) in the territories of Armenia"). America had previously offered to establish and lease this corridor through an American commercial company. The Middle East Eye website reported on 2025/7/14 that ("America has offered to take over the planned corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan to push forward the stalled negotiations between them, and that the American ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, revealed this offer during his press conference on Friday (2024/7/11)", and the website quoted Barrack's statements regarding the 32 km long corridor, saying: "They are arguing about 32 km of road, but it is not a trivial matter, it has been going on for a whole decade, then America comes and says well, we will take it. Give us 32 km of road under a 100-year lease and you can all share them"). This would strengthen American influence in both countries. This is confirmed by what Reuters reported on 2025/8/8 that ("Armenia has agreed to Trump's plan to lease a communication corridor with the Republic of Azerbaijan for 100 years, which means that the United States is seeking to impose its word on the ongoing dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As the first, with the support of Turkey, seeks to open the road to its Nakhichevan region, which is geographically separated from it... Armenia sees in that agreement an opportunity to obtain American protection from any possible attack from its neighbor Azerbaijan amid Russia's failure to support it in the recent war") where Armenia was defeated and their republic fell in the Karabakh region, which they had declared 35 years ago with the support of Russia previously.

3- The Middle East Eye website stated that ("Azerbaijan demands that the corridor not be under full Armenian control". It stated that "Turkey has exerted subtle pressure on Azerbaijan to sign the peace agreement and that it was the one who initially suggested the idea of establishing a private company with the approval of the two countries to manage the corridor".) Erdogan received both Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 2025/6/19 and the following day he received Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, whose visit was considered historical for Turkey. The Turkish President's office stated that ("Erdogan affirmed "the importance of the consensus reached in the ongoing peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia... and discussed possible steps that can be taken within the framework of the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia"... Al Jazeera 2025/6/21) Thus, we see Erdogan preparing for the signing of the agreement on behalf of America, as he revolves in America's orbit and provides it with services to extend its influence in the region in exchange for supporting him in remaining in power, and for Turkey to benefit from the movement of trade across land routes from Armenia to Azerbaijan.

4- The agreement stipulated that they ("expressed their deep gratitude to US President Trump for hosting their summit and for his significant contribution to the process of normalizing bilateral relations between the two countries"). US President Trump wanted to show his country's role and his personal role in particular prominently, as he likes to stand out and appear and to record every achievement in his name, claiming that he is capable of achieving peace and prosperity, so the road that will be established between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan region through Armenia was named after him (Trump Road). By concluding this agreement between these two countries, Trump also hopes to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize, as he was nominated for it by the Pakistani army chief, Munir Asim, as well as the Prime Minister of the Jewish entity, Netanyahu. Knowing that the peace and prosperity that Trump claims to be working to achieve means achieving America's interests and extending its influence and hegemony over various regions of the world and restoring its greatness, as he launched the slogan "America First" and the slogan "Make America Great Again (MAGA)".

5- The agreement stated that ("The signatories to the agreement called on the countries participating in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europeand the related Minsk structures to accept the decision"). That is, Trump is imposing on the other countries in the Minsk Group to accept this American decision without their participation in it and even without consulting them, and without giving them any value or attention. Especially Russia and France, which share with America in leading the Minsk Group, which was formed to solve the Azerbaijani-Armenian problem in 1992 by a decision of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe!America, apart from Russia, signed this agreement, and made its timing before the meeting of its president Trump with his Russian counterpart Putin so that there would be no objection from Russia, which must be in the matter because it has influence in the region, especially in Armenia after it lost its influence in Azerbaijan and because it is one of the leaders of the Minsk Group. It was asked of it, as it was asked of others in the group, to recognize and bless this agreement... Instead of Russia intervening and objecting, it did not do anything that indicates the weakness of its position and the weakness of its influence, which is about to disappear in Armenia.

6- It appears that Russia is not in a position that qualifies it to intervene and object strongly and then influence Armenia to prevent it from continuing to strengthen its relations with America. It preferred to go along with the situation as if it were satisfied with what is happening, while sending warnings to Armenia so that it would not lose it completely. It said, speaking through the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova: ("The meeting of the two republics located in the South Caucasus by the American side deserves a positive assessment. We hope that this step will advance the peace agenda.." But she stressed "the need to establish a direct dialogue without external assistance" and warned that "the participation of actors from outside the region should contribute to strengthening the peace agenda, not cause additional difficulties"... Al Jazeera 2025/8/9). That is, she is warning against the infiltration of American influence there. It had previously warned Armenia against allying itself with the West, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 2025/7/24 that ("While Armenia has the right to choose its political direction, Moscow hopes to avoid a repeat of the geopolitical transformation that Ukraine witnessed" and confirmed that "Russia still considers Armenia an ally and wants to continue to cooperate together"... Al Jazeera 2025/7/25) In that is a threat to Armenia that it will meet the fate of Ukraine when Russia lost its influence there after the fall of its agent Yanukovych in 2014 after America and Europe mobilized the Ukrainians and ignited a revolution against him. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan announced last year in an interview with France 24 on 2023/2/23 ("Freezing Armenia's practical participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization led by Russia... because it did not achieve its goals regarding Armenia") as Russia did not defend Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked it in 2020 and 2023 and expelled it from the territories it was occupying in Azerbaijan.We had mentionedin an answer we issued on 2023/10/4 that ("Russia has probably realized that this war is directed against it and planned by America through Erdogan's Turkey and Azerbaijan, which has become its guardian, and it will occupy it without benefit and scatter its forces, and it is now focusing on its war in Ukraine, which is a fateful war and it does not want to lose it, and it knows that if it loses it, it will lose everything, and if it wins it, it will be able to restore its influence in the areas it lost. At the same time, it does not want to clash with Turkey, which it needs in these circumstances and the siege imposed on it, and it is its gateway to the Western world, and it also wants to maintain its relations with Azerbaijan, as it has investments there, especially in energy resources worth 6 billion dollars, and the volume of trade exchange between them is more than 4 billion dollars. As for Armenia, it is a burden on it in everything... It is not ruled out that it will restore it to its full influence as it was if it wins the war in Ukraine").

7- America neglected Europe, especially France, which leads the Minsk Group with it, so Trump dropped Europe, headed by France, as he dropped Russia from the equation and singled out the issue, but Azerbaijan and Armenia sent a joint message to dissolve the Minsk Group, so a statement issued by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry on 2025/8/11 stated that ("The foreign ministers of the two countries sent a joint message to the current President of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to end the Minsk Group", "After this call, a draft resolution was circulated on ending the Minsk process and related structures between the participating countries in the organization" and called on "Azerbaijan and Armenia to support the necessary measures to take this decision"... Azerbaijani Government News Agency 2025/8/11). With that, America is dropping any influence of Europe in this issue in order to single it out and be able to extend its influence in it. The two countries have begun implementing the agreement quickly, including also ("Withdrawing all mutual lawsuits and disputes between them at the international level as stipulated in the agreement"... the same source) France was forced to announce its acceptance of the dissolution of the Minsk Group and it no longer has any role or influence since 2020 after Azerbaijan declared war on Armenia and then recovered its territories, which the Minsk Group did not benefit from recovering, as the Group claimed that it was working on that peacefully. France has become flattering America so that it does not appear that it has lost and is looking for a role to play there, so it claimed that it supports the agreement, which was supporting the Armenians publicly against Azerbaijan...