Answering a Question: The American Vision for Resolving the Cyprus Issue

Answering a Question

The American Vision for Resolving the Cyprus Issue

Question:

(The Turkish Presidency announced on Monday that the President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhurman, will visit Ankara next Thursday, 2025/11/13. The head of the Turkish Presidency's Communications Department, Burhanettin Duran, said that Erhurman's visit to Ankara comes in response to an invitation from President Erdogan, adding that the visit will be Erhurman's first foreign trip. On October 19, the Supreme Election Board in Turkish Cyprus announced the victory of the leader of the Republican Turkish Party, Tufan Erhurman, in the presidential elections... Anadolu Agency 2025/11/10) What caused this rapprochement? Knowing that Erhurman called for the unification of the island in his election campaign, and Erdogan called for two states? Is America behind the rapprochement? May Allah reward you.

Answer:

In order to clarify the answer to the questions above, we review the following matters:

First: The opposition candidate in Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhurman, won from the first round in the elections and obtained more than 62% of the votes, compared to less than 36% for the current president, Ersin Tatar (RT, 10/19/2025). The new thing in these elections is the victory of the opposition candidate who built his election campaign on unifying the island with Greek Cyprus from the first round and by a large margin, while the current president, who calls for a two-state solution, fell, that solution that Turkey has been promoting for decades. To understand the repercussions of these results locally and internationally, we review the following:

1- From the perspective of the Turkish presence in Northern Cyprus, Turkey, in the era of its allegiance to the British, exploited the marginalization of Turkish Muslims in the island by the Greek Cypriots and intervened militarily in 1974 to prevent the introduction of American influence into the island through the latter's agents, and it succeeded in that at that time. However, Erdogan's years in power have moved Turkey from the British side to the American side, and thus the Turkish presence in the north of the island has become a stick in the hands of America. As for the local aspect, the secularists have maintained the upper hand in the north of the island, and government officials continue to prevent girls from even wearing headscarves in schools. When the Prime Minister's decision allowed this in April 2025, the Supreme Constitutional Court overturned the decision in September 2025 (Khaberler newspaper, 25/9/2025), which indicates the infiltration of extremist secularism in Northern Cyprus.

2- Since Turkey did not transfer any economic success story to the north of the island, and the situation in the north of the island remained marginal from an economic point of view, but rather turned into a haven for unclean money, and gambling halls and casinos spread. On the other hand, Greek Cyprus, which became a member of the European Union in 2004 and joined the Eurozone in 2008, all of this increased the appetite of the forces calling for the reunification of the island with Greek Cyprus, especially since Turkey has been knocking on the door of the European Union for decades and it is not opened for it!

Second: This local climate, those ties with Turkey, and this secular rush have contributed to this election result, where the candidate Tufan Erhurman won overwhelmingly, and from the first round. However, these local circumstances were not the main driver that produced this victory, as the fluctuations of the international arena and the discoveries of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean have cast their shadows, and the explanation for that is:

1- The Russian war in Ukraine: Within the framework of fortifying all possible scenarios for the development of Russia's war in Ukraine and the possibility of Russia controlling the Black Sea, America is strengthening its military presence in its military bases in Greece, including the transfer of some ground equipment. To confront these Russian threats, America's view of Cyprus as a fixed "aircraft carrier" in the region is renewed, so America is reviving its dreams of building its military bases on the island, which are old dreams, but Russia's war in Ukraine increases America's need for military bases on the island. From the perspective of the Middle East wars, America views its military presence in Cyprus as more stable than its presence in the Arab region, which it fears that (its fluctuations and the increasing Islamic state) will lead to the removal of American influence from the region.

2- Natural gas discoveries: The large discoveries of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean during the past two decades are making the mouths of American energy companies already involved in exploiting gas fields in this region water, and pushing America to further extend its influence over the region. In this matter, Cyprus is considered an important link in it, whether in terms of production or pipelines. Therefore, the American ambassador to Cyprus meets with the Cypriot president constantly and discusses with him issues of oil and gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean since 2018 - as well as visits by members of Congress to Nicosia. Because of this gas, new conflicts have arisen between the countries of the region under the title of maritime economic borders. When the Trump administration returned again at the beginning of the year, the momentum of the influence of American energy companies returned with it, and the Trump administration began to accelerate in dominating the production of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean to be another tool added to its existing tools in linking Europe to it in energy matters after depriving it of Russian gas.

3- Britain's weakness after Brexit: America's view of Britain, whose weakness became apparent after Brexit, has changed. Despite America's promises to Britain of a major trade agreement when it left the European Union in 2020, promises that have not been fulfilled, the Trump administration instead imposed customs duties on it, the effects of which are still unfolding in the closure of British factories. The new American view requires inheriting Britain's influence and exploiting its tools, especially Cyprus. The American magazine The National Interest published an article on 2024/11/8, which has conservative tendencies and supports the Trump group, by one of the poles of the American right, Michael Rubin, in which he called for America to remove Britain from Cyprus and take its two military bases, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which represent 3% of the island's area!

4- It is most likely that these international fluctuations and those gas discoveries have worked to build a new American orientation towards unifying the island of Cyprus. The Trump administration, during its first term, lifted the arms embargo on Cyprus, which has been in place since 1987, (The United States announced on Tuesday that it had partially lifted, for one year, the ban it has imposed for more than thirty years on the sale of military equipment to Cyprus, ..., and the US State Department said in a statement (that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "informed" the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicos, of "his decision to lift restrictions on the export, re-export, and re-transfer of non-lethal defense materials and defense services." Swiss info, 2020/9/2). That lifting is renewed every year, then the Biden administration completed this path by signing an important defense agreement with Cyprus, (Cyprus and the United States signed a framework agreement for defense cooperation that defines ways to strengthen the two countries' response to regional humanitarian crises and security concerns. Al-Youm Al-Sabea, 2024/9/10).

Third: In an extremely rare event that has only happened in 1970 and 1996, US President Biden received the Cypriot President in Washington. This was at the end of the Biden administration's term and after the announcement of Trump's victory, and America announced its position: (The American President, who received the President of the Republic, Nikos Christodoulides, at the White House, said in his statements before the meeting, "I remain optimistic about the possibility of unifying Cyprus on the basis of a bicommunal, bizonal federation. He affirmed that "the United States is ready to provide any support we can to achieve this goal." For his part, President Nikos affirmed that he relies on the support of the United States with regard to the Cyprus issue.." Cypriot News Agency, 2024/10/30), and before that (the Minister of Defense of the Cypriot administration, Palmas, stated that the construction of a helicopter base near Larnaca is underway. The Greek Cypriot administration media reported that the base will be allocated to the United States,. Turkey Today Newspaper 2024/7/29).

Fourth: As for Turkey, it announced its rejection of the defense agreement between Greek Cyprus and America (website of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 11, 2024), but as a country subordinate to America, it cannot oppose a matter that America has decided, so Turkey began holding high-level meetings with Greek officials, and also contacted officials of Greek Cyprus, even though it does not recognize them because of the conflict over Northern Cyprus:

1- (Cypriot officials said the Turkish and Cypriot presidents met on the sidelines of a summit in Hungary on Thursday in a rare meeting. Cypriot government deputy spokesman Yanis said in a post on the "X" platform that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan was also among those present. Al-Ittihad News, 2024/11/7), and this can only be at the request of America to push Turkey to pave the way for accepting the American solution in Cyprus.

2- For example, when Turkey began to strain the atmosphere with Greece, this was in accordance with the desires of the Trump administration in his first term. When Biden came and began to follow the approach of returning to lead his European allies, Turkey-Erdogan was organized in this American trend that contradicts the trend of the previous administration.

3- Turkey's opposition to American defense cooperation with Greek Cyprus in 2024 is without actual reality, as Erdogan's meeting with the President of Greek Cyprus was shortly after this opposition! This is evidence that Turkey-Erdogan is reflecting its direction according to the American direction.

Fifth: As for the statement of the elected President of Northern Cyprus: (Erhurman described his victory as "a victory for all Turkish Cypriots, with their different affiliations," affirming his intention to manage foreign policy "in close coordination with Turkey," in order to preserve unity and position. Al Jazeera Net, 2025/10/20), it is to prepare the atmosphere for rapprochement between the two parties to implement the American plan for federalism in Cyprus. Therefore, Erdogan's ally and leader of the Turkish nationalists in Ankara, Devlet Bahceli, was furious and announced his rejection of the election results in Northern Cyprus and called on the parliament of Northern Cyprus to convene urgently and declare its rejection of the election results and take a decision to join the Turkish Republic (RT, 2025/10/19), but Erdogan himself (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated on Sunday the leader of the Turkish Republican Party in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhurman, on his victory in the presidential elections. Anadolu Agency, 2025/10/19), and even boasted about the maturity of democracy in Northern Cyprus. That is, the strict positions are heard from the Turkish circles far from the government, and as for Erdogan's circle, which is immersed in subordination to America, its positions are in accordance with the American direction. For this reason, Erdogan abandoned annexing Cyprus or a two-state solution, and became inclined to federalism!

Sixth: Accordingly, it is most likely that negotiations to unify the island of Cyprus will accelerate according to the American solution on the basis of a bicommunal, bizonal federation in which the Greek Cypriots have the upper hand, while the political rights of the Turkish Cypriot Muslims are less, in line with America's war on Islam, and in line with its vision of a greater role for a Cyprus that is Roman in character and loyal to America. Then Turkey has placed itself in the orbit of America and cannot oppose it. If the local, Turkish, and international circumstances remain as they are today, then the road will be open this time for the success of the negotiations within the framework of a federal union according to the American vision. It is not excluded that Tufan Erhurman's visit to Turkey on Thursday 2025/11/13 is the first step in implementing the American plan in the bicommunal, bizonal federal union, and the internal affairs of the two regions will be according to each region, while the defense and foreign affairs will be mainly in the hands of the federal government, i.e., in the hands of the Greek Cypriots, and if things go as America wants, then its plan will include evacuating Cyprus from foreign forces (the two British bases on the island and the Turkish forces) so that it alone has the bases in northern Cyprus!